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Ty Johnson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
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Ty Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 23.0 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Johnson has been the #60-leading rusher this season, tallying 16 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 32.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Jets have faced a stacked box 10.6% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.
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CONS:
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The Jets project to run 60.2 total plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.New York is a 5.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.The New Orleans Saints have ranked #5 against the run this year, holding opponents to 96 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, New Orleans's defense has allowed 3.71 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#1-least in football).Saints defensive ends have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Saints defensive tackles have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Saints linebackers have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Saints safeties have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The New York Jets offensive line has ranked #14 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 39.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #64 percentile among running backs.He has received 19.8% of New York's carries this year -- #61 percentile when it comes to running backs.New York has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#16-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The New York Jets have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense runs the ball 37.8% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.8% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 39.3% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #19 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 49.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 75.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $47.88. It's return on investment would yeild 44%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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