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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
Ty Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 23.0 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -110.
  • Johnson has been the #60-leading rusher this season, tallying 16 yards per game on the ground.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 32.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Jets have faced a stacked box 10.6% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.

  • CONS:
  • The Jets project to run 60.2 total plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.
  • New York is a 5.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • The New Orleans Saints have ranked #5 against the run this year, holding opponents to 96 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, New Orleans's defense has allowed 3.71 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#1-least in football).
  • Saints defensive ends have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Saints defensive tackles have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Saints linebackers have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Saints safeties have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • The New York Jets offensive line has ranked #14 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 39.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #64 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 19.8% of New York's carries this year -- #61 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • New York has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#16-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The New York Jets have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense runs the ball 37.8% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.8% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 39.3% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #19 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 49.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 75.2% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $47.88. It's return on investment would yeild 44%.

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