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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles
Ty Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 19.0 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.
  • Johnson has been the #59-leading rusher this season, tallying 17 yards per game on the ground.
  • Eagles defensive tackles have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Jets have faced a stacked box 10.6% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.

  • CONS:
  • New York is a 5.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Eagles defensive ends have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Eagles safeties have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • The New York Jets offensive line has ranked #13 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 38.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #61 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 20.8% of New York's carries this year -- #57 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 6.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • New York has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The New York Jets have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Jets project to run 63.4 total plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 38.0% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.0% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 38.3% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have ranked #19 against the run this year, holding opponents to 117 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Philadelphia's defense has allowed 4.32 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#11-least in football).
  • Eagles linebackers have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #14 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 29.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.9% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $22.13. It's return on investment would yeild 20%.

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