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Ty Johnson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Houston Texans vs New York Jets
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Ty Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 12.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #91 percentile among running backs.The New York Jets have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Houston Texans have ranked #29 against the run this year, holding opponents to 135 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Houston's defense has allowed 4.75 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#26-least in football).Texans defensive ends have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Texans safeties have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Jets have faced a stacked box 11.4% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.
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CONS:
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This offense runs the ball 36.6% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL), and they project to run 36.6% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 37.5% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Texans defensive tackles have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Johnson has been the #71-leading rusher this season, tallying 14 yards per game on the ground.The New York Jets offensive line has ranked #13 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 39.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #62 percentile among running backs.He has received 21.3% of New York's carries this year -- #60 percentile when it comes to running backs.New York has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Jets project to run 63.0 total plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.Texans linebackers have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Houston Texans have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #13 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 33.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.96. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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