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T.Y. Hilton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, T.Y. Hilton Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 27.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, the Colts have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.Indianapolis's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.Indianapolis has run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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The Raiders's pass defense ranks #3-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 131 yards per game this season.The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 7.33 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.In a neutral context, Indianapolis has run the #31-fastest paced offense this season.The Colts are a 8.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time (#24 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Indianapolis to drop back to pass on 54.7% of their plays in this game (#25-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Hilton ranks in the #53 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 51.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Hilton ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 66.3% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Hilton ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.2% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Hilton for a 0.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Hilton ranks in the #42 percentile and has put up 7.87 yards per target this season.Hilton's 65.4% completion rate marks him in the #53 percentile among receivers.The Las Vegas Raiders rank #22-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.7%.As a unit, the Raiders cornerbacks rank #15 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Raiders safeties rank #16 in pass coverage.The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 62.4 plays in this matchup, the #21-most on the game slate.Indianapolis's O-Line grades out as the #21-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Hilton open.Indianapolis's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.47 seconds on average this year (#20-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Colts have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hilton to exceed his player prop total 54.5% of the time. He projects for 31.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $2.15. That makes its return on investment yield +2%.
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