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T.Y. Hilton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
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T.Y. Hilton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Indianapolis has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Houston's defense has allowed 176 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#7-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.70) against the Texans this season.The Texans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.6% of their targets this season, (#8-most in the league).Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.Houston Texans safeties rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.75 yards per target this season, ranking in the #18 percentile.Hilton has been in the #26 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 58.7% completion rate.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Indianapolis is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 55.0% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Hilton has been on the field for 52.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 62.4% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 13.2% -- #57 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hilton is projected for 1.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers.The Colts project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).Hilton's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Colts offensive line has given the QB 2.47 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#20-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis has faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 35.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.03 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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