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Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 238.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 240.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 238.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #3-best in the league, completing passes at a 69.4% clip.The Dolphins enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.7% of the time (#8 in the NFL).Miami's offensive has kept pressure off Tua Tagovailoa for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL).Miami has run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Tennessee's #29-ranked pass defense has allowed 269 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Tennessee's defense is #23-best. This is because they allowed 7.90 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tennessee's defensive tackles rank #30 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tennessee's linebackers rank #28 this season.
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CONS:
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Miami's O-Line grades out as the #28-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Dolphins have faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).The Tennessee Titans have had the #2-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Tennessee Titans have had the #6-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tennessee's defensive ends rank #8 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Titans, they've stacked the box on 9.9% of their plays this season, #25-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #25-best in the league, Tagovailoa has passed for213 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Tagovailoa has been #20 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.13 yards per target.This year, the Dolphins have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Miami has run the #15-fastest paced offense this season.The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #18-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects Miami to drop back to pass on 59.2% of their plays in this game (#17-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tennessee has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.4% of their targets, which ranks them #16-best in the NFL.The Tennessee Titans have had the #17-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Tagovailoa to exceed his player prop total 39.6% of the time. He projects for 210.6 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $14.92. That makes its return on investment yield +13%.
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