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Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 236.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 233.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 236.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #4-best in the league, completing passes at a 69.1% clip.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.1% of the time (#7 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Miami to drop back to pass on 62.2% of their plays in this game (#10-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Miami's offensive has kept pressure off Tua Tagovailoa for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL).Miami has run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New Orleans's defensive tackles rank #27 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New Orleans's linebackers rank #28 this season.
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CONS:
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The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 60.6 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.The Dolphins enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Miami's O-Line grades out as the #27-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Dolphins have faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).New Orleans has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.7% of their targets, which ranks them #6-best in the NFL.The New Orleans Saints have had the #10-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints have had the #10-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #24-best in the league, Tagovailoa has passed for215 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Tagovailoa has been #21 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.12 yards per target.This year, the Dolphins have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Miami has run the #12-fastest paced offense this season.New Orleans's #15-ranked pass defense has allowed 249 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, New Orleans's defense is #12-best. This is because they allowed 7.49 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New Orleans Saints have had the #11-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New Orleans's defensive ends rank #19 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Saints, they've stacked the box on 13.3% of their plays this season, #19-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Tagovailoa to exceed his player prop total 56.8% of the time. He projects for 255.1 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $7.18. That makes its return on investment yield +6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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