| |
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 240.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 234.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 240.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
He's been the #3-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 70.4% clip.The Miami Dolphins have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 65.6% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL).The Dolphins offensive line has given Tua Tagovailoa 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Miami Dolphins have run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in the NFL.The New York Giants have had the #29-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Giants linebackers have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Miami is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Tua Tagovailoa's offensive line has been #28 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Miami have faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#7.8%).New York's defense has been #7-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.31 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Giants have had the #4-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Giants have stacked the box on 8.3% of their plays this season, #29-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Tagovailoa has passed for 215 yards per game this year, #26-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Tagovailoa has been #19 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.34 yards per target.Miami has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Dolphins project to run 63.6 plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 57.9% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The New York Giants enter this game with the #17-best pass defense this season, allowing 258 yards per game through the air.The Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.5% of their targets, ranking #20 in the NFL.The New York Giants have had the #18-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Giants defensive ends have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Giants defensive tackles have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 250.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.67. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
