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Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
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Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 227.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 226.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 227.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #7-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.7% clip.The Miami Dolphins have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 66.6% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 61.8% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Dolphins offensive line has given Tua Tagovailoa 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Miami Dolphins have run play-action on 29.9% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box on 21.3% of their plays this season, #2-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Tagovailoa has passed for 211 yards per game this year, #27-best in the league.Tua Tagovailoa's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Miami have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#8.1%).The Carolina Panthers enter this game with the #1-best pass defense this season, allowing 196 yards per game through the air.Carolina's defense has been #7-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.48 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Carolina Panthers have had the #5-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Panthers linebackers have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Carolina's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #2-quickest in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Tagovailoa has been #20 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.28 yards per target.Miami has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Dolphins project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.The Panthers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.9% of their targets, ranking #16 in the NFL.The Carolina Panthers have had the #14-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Carolina Panthers have had the #16-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Panthers defensive ends have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Panthers defensive tackles have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 255.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.32. It's return on investment would yeild 12%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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