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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 227.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 226.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 227.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • He's been the #7-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.7% clip.
  • The Miami Dolphins have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense passes the ball 66.6% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.8% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • The Dolphins offensive line has given Tua Tagovailoa 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Miami Dolphins have run play-action on 29.9% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.
  • The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box on 21.3% of their plays this season, #2-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • CONS:
  • Tagovailoa has passed for 211 yards per game this year, #27-best in the league.
  • Tua Tagovailoa's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Miami have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#8.1%).
  • The Carolina Panthers enter this game with the #1-best pass defense this season, allowing 196 yards per game through the air.
  • Carolina's defense has been #7-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.48 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The Carolina Panthers have had the #5-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Panthers linebackers have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Carolina's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #2-quickest in the NFL.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Efficiency-wise, Tagovailoa has been #20 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.28 yards per target.
  • Miami has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Dolphins project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.
  • The Panthers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.9% of their targets, ranking #16 in the NFL.
  • The Carolina Panthers have had the #14-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Carolina Panthers have had the #16-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Panthers defensive ends have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Panthers defensive tackles have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 255.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.32. It's return on investment would yeild 12%.
     
     
     
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