| |
Trey Lance Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Trey Lance Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 193.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 203.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 193.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #6-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.San Francisco has run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Houston's #23-ranked pass defense has allowed 261 passing yards per game this year.Houston has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.4% of their targets, which ranks them #24-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Houston's defense is #30-best. This is because they allowed 8.60 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Houston Texans have had the #30-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #29-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #25-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Houston's linebackers rank #24 this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 61.4 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.The 49ers are a 13.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time (#25 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 40.2% of their plays in this game (#32-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.San Francisco's offensive has kept pressure off Trey Lance for 2.52 seconds on average this year (#23-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The 49ers have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Houston's defensive ends rank #5 this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Houston's defensive tackles rank #16 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Texans, they've stacked the box on 15.9% of their plays this season, #11-most in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Lance to exceed his player prop total 42.4% of the time. He projects for 174.3 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $8.90. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
