|
Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 202.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 210.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 202.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
In a neutral context, Jacksonville has run the #2-fastest paced offense this season.The Jaguars are a 14.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #26-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
In terms of Completion%, he has been the #35-best in the league, completing passes at a 57.9% clip.In terms of efficiency, Lawrence has been #37 in the NFL this season. He averages 5.90 yards per target.The Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to run 59.2 plays in this matchup, the #32-most on the game slate.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Jaguars have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).Indianapolis has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.0% of their targets, which ranks them #6-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Indianapolis's defense is #8-best. This is because they allowed 7.22 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Indianapolis's defensive tackles rank #5 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Indianapolis's linebackers rank #3 this season.
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
This year, at #26-best in the league, Lawrence has passed for210 yards per game.This year, the Jaguars have played in the #18-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Lawrence's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.2% of the time (#19 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Jacksonville to drop back to pass on 62.8% of their plays in this game (#11-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Jacksonville's O-Line grades out as the #13-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Jacksonville has run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Indianapolis's #16-ranked pass defense has allowed 248 passing yards per game this year.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #13-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #11-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Indianapolis's defensive ends rank #22 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Colts, they've stacked the box on 14.4% of their plays this season, #17-most in football.
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
THE BLITZ projects Lawrence to exceed his player prop total 54.2% of the time. He projects for 213.4 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.57. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
|
|
|
|