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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Right now, Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 191.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 192.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 191.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In a neutral context, Jacksonville has run the #1-fastest paced offense this season.The Jaguars are a 17.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Jacksonville to drop back to pass on 63.7% of their plays in this game (#5-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Jacksonville's O-Line grades out as the #11-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New England's defensive ends rank #24 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Patriots, they've stacked the box on 18.8% of their plays this season, #6-most in football.
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CONS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #35-best in the league, completing passes at a 57.3% clip.In terms of efficiency, Lawrence has been #37 in the NFL this season. He averages 5.84 yards per target.The Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to run 58.8 plays in this matchup, the #31-most on the game slate.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Jaguars have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).New England's #3-ranked pass defense has allowed 211 passing yards per game this year.New England has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.6% of their targets, which ranks them #4-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, New England's defense is #6-best. This is because they allowed 7.17 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New England Patriots have had the #3-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The New England Patriots have had the #8-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New England's linebackers rank #10 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #27-best in the league, Lawrence has passed for212 yards per game.This year, the Jaguars have played in the #17-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Lawrence's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.3% of the time (#18 in the NFL).Jacksonville has run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.The New England Patriots have had the #18-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New England's defensive tackles rank #14 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Lawrence to exceed his player prop total 56.9% of the time. He projects for 209.3 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $7.40. That makes its return on investment yield +6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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