| |
Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 216.5 (-105/-130) with an implied projection of 212.0 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 218.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 216.5 @ -130.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Jaguars project to run 64.3 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.Jacksonville is a 14.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.3% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Rams have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.9% of their targets, ranking #28 in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Lawrence has passed for 213 yards per game this year, #29-best in the league.He's been the #37-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 56.6% clip.Efficiency-wise, Lawrence has been #37 in the NFL this season, averaging 5.90 yards per target.Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This offense passes the ball 59.6% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#11.1%).The Los Angeles Rams have had the #2-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Rams defensive ends have ranked #2 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box on 4.9% of their plays this season, #32-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Trevor Lawrence's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.The Los Angeles Rams enter this game with the #22-best pass defense this season, allowing 264 yards per game through the air.Los Angeles's defense has been #13-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.68 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #20-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #20-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Rams defensive tackles have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Rams linebackers have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 242.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.34. It's return on investment would yeild 17%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
