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Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
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Right now, Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 22.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Smith ranks in the #69 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 67.1% of his team's snaps this season.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Falcons's pass defense ranks #25-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 166 yards per game this season.The Atlanta Falcons rank #30-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 69.8%.As a unit, the Falcons safeties rank #28 in pass coverage.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Saints have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).
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CONS:
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As a unit, the Falcons cornerbacks rank #10 in pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 61.5 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.The Saints enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.9% of the time (#30 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects New Orleans to drop back to pass on 49.1% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of route running, Smith ranks in the #65 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 74.4% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Smith ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 14.4% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Smith for a 0.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Smith ranks in the #50 percentile and has put up 8.07 yards per target this season.Smith's 64.6% completion rate marks him in the #46 percentile among receivers.The Atlanta Falcons have allowed 8.26 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #18-highest among NFL opponents.In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #20-fastest paced offense this season.New Orleans's O-Line grades out as the #20-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Smith open.New Orleans has run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Smith to exceed his player prop total 61.8% of the time. He projects for 33.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $17.83. That makes its return on investment yield +16%.
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