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Tre'Quan Smith

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins
Right now, Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 30.8 yards.

The money is on the Under: it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -120.
  • In terms of playing time, Smith ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 70.1% of his team's snaps this season.
  • In terms of route running, Smith ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 78.8% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season.
  • In terms of earning targets, Smith ranks in the #68 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 15.4% of passes this season.
  • New Orleans's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.
  • The Dolphins's pass defense ranks #29-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 176 yards per game this season.
  • The Saints enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.
  • Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Saints have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).

  • CONS:
  • As a unit, the Dolphins safeties rank #5 in pass coverage.
  • The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 61.1 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.
  • In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time (#30 in the NFL).
  • THE BLITZ projects New Orleans to drop back to pass on 50.2% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.

  • This week, THE BLITZ projects Smith for a 2.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
  • Smith ranks in the #47 percentile and has put up 8.01 yards per target this season.
  • Smith's 64.0% completion rate marks him in the #47 percentile among receivers.
  • The Miami Dolphins have allowed 8.44 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #21-highest among NFL opponents.
  • The Miami Dolphins rank #12-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.5%.
  • As a unit, the Dolphins cornerbacks rank #19 in pass coverage.
  • In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.
  • New Orleans's O-Line grades out as the #19-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Smith open.
  • New Orleans has run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.

    THE BLITZ projects Smith to exceed his player prop total 55.8% of the time. He projects for 37.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.

    According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $7.18. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.

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