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Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
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Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Smith has been on the field for 71.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 81.1% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.28 yards per target this season, ranking in the #72 percentile.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Dallas's defense has allowed 187 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#4-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #10-most yards per target (9.04) against the Cowboys this season.New Orleans is a 6.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New Orleans has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).
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CONS:
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The Cowboys have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 61.8% of their targets this season, (#27-most in the league).The Saints project to run 61.3 plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 47.2% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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His target share this season has been 15.2% -- #66 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Smith is projected for 2.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers.Smith has been in the #65 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.7% completion rate.Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Smith's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New Orleans Saints have run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 38.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.95 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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