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Tom Brady Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 289.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 286.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 289.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #1-best in the league, Brady has passed for323 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #8-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.7% clip.In terms of efficiency, Brady has been #7 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.63 yards per target.This year, the Buccaneers have played in the #7-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Brady's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 66.7 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.8% of the time (#1 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Tampa Bay to drop back to pass on 70.0% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tampa Bay's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #24-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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The Buccaneers enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In terms of passing efficiency, Los Angeles's defense is #9-best. This is because they allowed 7.24 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #3-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #10-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive ends rank #1 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's linebackers rank #9 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Los Angeles's #16-ranked pass defense has allowed 233 passing yards per game this year.Los Angeles has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.5% of their targets, which ranks them #19-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive tackles rank #20 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Brady to exceed his player prop total 56.6% of the time. He projects for 308.8 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $8.94. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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