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Tom Brady Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Right now, Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 278.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 286.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 278.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #1-best in the league, Brady has passed for318 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #13-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.1% clip.In terms of efficiency, Brady has been #10 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.54 yards per target.In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #7-fastest paced offense this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 64.5 plays in this matchup, the #5-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 71.0% of the time (#1 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Tampa Bay to drop back to pass on 63.3% of their plays in this game (#8-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tampa Bay's O-Line grades out as the #10-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Tampa Bay's offensive has kept pressure off Tom Brady for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL).New York's #25-ranked pass defense has allowed 265 passing yards per game this year.New York has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.5% of their targets, which ranks them #31-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, New York's defense is #32-best. This is because they allowed 8.91 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Jets have had the #26-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #31-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Jets, they've stacked the box on 21.9% of their plays this season, #2-most in football.
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CONS:
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The Buccaneers are a 14.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Tampa Bay has run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New York's defensive tackles rank #9 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, the Buccaneers have played in the #10-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Brady's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Buccaneers have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).The New York Jets have had the #20-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New York's defensive ends rank #20 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New York's linebackers rank #16 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Brady to exceed his player prop total 61.1% of the time. He projects for 311.0 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $16.39. That makes its return on investment yield +14%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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