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Tom Brady Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills
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Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 301.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 313.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 301.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Brady has passed for 333 yards per game this year, #1-best in the league.He's been the #5-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.1% clip.Efficiency-wise, Brady has been #3 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.86 yards per target.Tampa Bay has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buccaneers project to run 64.6 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 72.2% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 70.6% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Tom Brady's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Buccaneers offensive line has given Tom Brady 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
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CONS:
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Tampa Bay is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.The Buffalo Bills enter this game with the #1-best pass defense this season, allowing 184 yards per game through the air.The Bills have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.8% of their targets, ranking #4 in the NFL.Buffalo's defense has been #1-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 6.46 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Buffalo Bills have had the #3-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Buffalo Bills have had the #1-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bills defensive ends have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box on 10.6% of their plays this season, #24-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.7%).The Buffalo Bills have had the #22-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bills defensive tackles have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Bills linebackers have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 301.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$7.33 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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