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Tom Brady Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 317.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 313.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 317.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Brady has passed for 335 yards per game this year, #1-best in the league.He's been the #6-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.2% clip.Efficiency-wise, Brady has been #5 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.92 yards per target.Tampa Bay has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This offense passes the ball 72.3% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 71.4% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Tom Brady's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #29-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Colts defensive ends have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Buccaneers project to run 61.8 plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.Tampa Bay is a 3.0-point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.7% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.5%).The Indianapolis Colts have had the #8-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Colts defensive tackles have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Colts linebackers have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buccaneers offensive line has given Tom Brady 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Indianapolis Colts enter this game with the #22-best pass defense this season, allowing 267 yards per game through the air.The Colts have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.6% of their targets, ranking #11 in the NFL.Indianapolis's defense has been #16-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.84 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #17-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Indianapolis's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #21-quickest in the NFL.The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box on 14.1% of their plays this season, #19-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 344.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.83. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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