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Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 32.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Patrick ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 83.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Patrick ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 86.7% of Denver's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Patrick ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 16.3% of passes this season.This year, the Broncos have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Chiefs's pass defense ranks #26-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 168 yards per game this season.The Broncos are a 11.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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As a unit, the Chiefs cornerbacks rank #6 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Chiefs safeties rank #9 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Denver has run the #30-fastest paced offense this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Patrick for a -1.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Patrick ranks in the #65 percentile and has put up 8.64 yards per target this season.Patrick's 63.5% completion rate marks him in the #44 percentile among receivers.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 8.50 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #21-highest among NFL opponents.The Kansas City Chiefs rank #14-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.6%.The Denver Broncos are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.2% of the time (#21 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Denver to drop back to pass on 61.0% of their plays in this game (#16-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Denver's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Patrick open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Patrick to exceed his player prop total 56.0% of the time. He projects for 38.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $5.34. That makes its return on investment yield +5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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