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Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
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Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 30.2 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Patrick has been on the field for 83.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 86.6% of Denver's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 16.2% -- #70 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.00 yards per target this season, ranking in the #74 percentile.Denver has played in the #4-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Raiders have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.7% of their targets this season, (#8-most in the league).The Broncos offensive line has given the QB 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#8-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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Las Vegas's defense has allowed 133 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#29-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #30-most yards per target (7.34) against the Raiders this season.The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patrick is projected for -0.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #50 percentile among wide receivers.Patrick has been in the #51 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.0% completion rate.Las Vegas Raiders cornerbacks rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.Las Vegas Raiders safeties rank as the #15 unit in pass coverage.The Broncos project to run 62.3 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 59.7% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.7% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Patrick's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $18.40. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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