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Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-120/-115) with an implied projection of 37.9 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Patrick has been on the field for 82.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 85.9% of Denver's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 16.3% -- #69 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.06 yards per target this season, ranking in the #71 percentile.Denver has played in the #4-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Bengals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.8% of their targets this season, (#6-most in the league).The Broncos offensive line has given the QB 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#8-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Broncos project to run 59.8 plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.Denver is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patrick is projected for -0.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #43 percentile among wide receivers.Patrick has been in the #53 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.8% completion rate.Cincinnati's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#12-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #13-most yards per target (8.65) against the Bengals this season.Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the #18 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 60.5% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.0% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Patrick's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.85. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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