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Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions
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Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 36.2 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Patrick has been on the field for 82.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 86.8% of Denver's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #83 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 16.0% -- #67 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.39 yards per target this season, ranking in the #75 percentile.Denver has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Opposing wideouts have put up the #6-most yards per target (9.21) against the Lions this season.Detroit Lions cornerbacks rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.Detroit Lions safeties rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.The Broncos offensive line has given the QB 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#8-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Denver is a 12.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 53.3% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patrick is projected for -0.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #48 percentile among wide receivers.Patrick has been in the #65 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.9% completion rate.Detroit's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#15-most in football).The Lions have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.0% of their targets this season, (#22-most in the league).The Broncos project to run 61.2 plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.1% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).Patrick's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 45.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.78. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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