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Tim Patrick

Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
Tim Patrick Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -115.
  • Patrick has been on the field for 82.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 87.7% of Denver's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #86 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 16.6% -- #72 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Denver has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Chargers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.5% of their targets this season, (#8-most in the league).

  • CONS:
  • Los Angeles's defense has allowed 140 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #23-most yards per target (7.82) against the Chargers this season.
  • Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Denver Broncos have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patrick is projected for -1.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #35 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Broncos project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 60.1% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • Patrick's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver has faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.0%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 46.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.69. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.

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