| |
Tevin Coleman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Tevin Coleman Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 24.0 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -110.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New York's ranks #11 in that regard this season.In a neutral context, New York has run the #7-fastest paced offense this season.The safeties of Buffalo have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (10.6% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Bills have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #24-most in the NFL this year at 10.6% of the time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Jets are a 16.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 4.19 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #7-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of Buffalo have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Coleman finds himself in the #37 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 35 yards.His 25.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #40 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 34.2% this year puts him in the #61 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Coleman for a -5.7% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Jets have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The New York Jets are projected to run 63.3 plays in this matchup, the #14-most on the game slate.New York has been the #17-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 39.0% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #18-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 38.8% of their plays.The Bills defense has allowed 108 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #14-least in football.The defensive ends of Buffalo have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Buffalo have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Coleman to exceed his player prop total 61.4% of the time. He projects for 32.8 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $15.17. That makes its return on investment yield +13%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
