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Tevin Coleman

Tevin Coleman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars
 
 
 
Tevin Coleman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 32.9 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -120.
PROS:
  • The New York Jets have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offenses projects to runs 42.5% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Jaguars safeties have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Jets have faced a stacked box 10.6% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.

  • CONS:
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #6 most in the league.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Coleman has been the #47-leading rusher this season, tallying 33 yards per game on the ground.
  • The New York Jets offensive line has ranked #13 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 24.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #38 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 33.2% of New York's carries this year -- #45 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Coleman is projected for 0.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • New York has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#18-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Jets project to run 63.0 total plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 37.7% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.7% of the time in this contest.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have ranked #21 against the run this year, holding opponents to 120 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Jacksonville's defense has allowed 4.31 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#11-least in football).
  • Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Jaguars linebackers have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 40.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.21. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
     
     
     
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