Tevin Coleman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles

Tevin Coleman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-115/-115).

PROS:

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Coleman is projected for 22.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.

Eagles defensive tackles have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Jets have faced a stacked box 10.6% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.

CONS:

New York is a 5.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.

Eagles defensive ends have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

Eagles safeties have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

NEUTRAL:

The New York Jets offensive line has ranked #13 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.

He has been on the field for 23.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #38 percentile among running backs.

He has received 29.4% of New York's carries this year -- #46 percentile when it comes to running backs.

New York has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.

The New York Jets have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The Jets project to run 63.4 total plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.

This offense runs the ball 38.0% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.0% of the time in this contest.

This offenses projects to runs 38.3% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have ranked #19 against the run this year, holding opponents to 117 yards per game on the ground.

In terms of efficiency, Philadelphia's defense has allowed 4.32 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#11-least in football).

Eagles linebackers have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

The Philadelphia Eagles have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #14 most in the league.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 52.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.2% of the time.

The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $18.64. It's return on investment would yeild 16%.

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