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Tevin Coleman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Tevin Coleman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Coleman is projected for 22.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Eagles defensive tackles have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Jets have faced a stacked box 10.6% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.
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CONS:
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New York is a 5.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Eagles defensive ends have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Eagles safeties have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The New York Jets offensive line has ranked #13 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 23.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #38 percentile among running backs.He has received 29.4% of New York's carries this year -- #46 percentile when it comes to running backs.New York has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The New York Jets have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Jets project to run 63.4 total plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 38.0% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.0% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 38.3% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Philadelphia Eagles have ranked #19 against the run this year, holding opponents to 117 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Philadelphia's defense has allowed 4.32 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#11-least in football).Eagles linebackers have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Philadelphia Eagles have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #14 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 52.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $18.64. It's return on investment would yeild 16%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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