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Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
New York Giants vs Washington Football Team
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Right now, Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, McLaurin ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 93.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, McLaurin ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 94.6% of Washington's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, McLaurin ranks in the #92 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 25.0% of passes this season.This year, the WFT have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. McLaurin's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.The Giants's pass defense ranks #23-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 163 yards per game this season.The New York Giants rank #26-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.1%.Washington's O-Line grades out as the #6-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find McLaurin open.Washington has run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.The New York Giants have allowed 7.77 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #10-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Giants cornerbacks rank #9 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Washington has run the #23-fastest paced offense this season.The WFT enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.0% of the time (#23 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Washington to drop back to pass on 51.2% of their plays in this game (#28-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Washington's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.58 seconds on average this year (#31-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The WFT have faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects McLaurin for a 0.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.McLaurin ranks in the #54 percentile and has put up 8.25 yards per target this season.McLaurin's 61.1% completion rate marks him in the #35 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Giants safeties rank #19 in pass coverage.The Washington Football Team are projected to run 63.3 plays in this matchup, the #13-most on the game slate.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects McLaurin to exceed his player prop total 47.0% of the time. He projects for 49.9 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.99 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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