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Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
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Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 239.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 247.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 239.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #7-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.1% clip.Denver has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Denver is a 8.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Broncos offensive line has given Teddy Bridgewater 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with the #24-best pass defense this season, allowing 268 yards per game through the air.The Chiefs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.7% of their targets, ranking #26 in the NFL.Kansas City's defense has been #25-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.30 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #31-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Chiefs linebackers have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Denver Broncos have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Broncos project to run 61.2 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #6-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box on 8.7% of their plays this season, #28-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Bridgewater has passed for 233 yards per game this year, #19-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Bridgewater has been #14 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.56 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 61.6% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teddy Bridgewater's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#15.4%).The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #13-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 265.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.41. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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