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Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
 
 
 
Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 239.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 247.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 239.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • He's been the #7-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.1% clip.
  • Denver has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Denver is a 8.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • The Broncos offensive line has given Teddy Bridgewater 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with the #24-best pass defense this season, allowing 268 yards per game through the air.
  • The Chiefs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.7% of their targets, ranking #26 in the NFL.
  • Kansas City's defense has been #25-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.30 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #31-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Chiefs linebackers have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • The Denver Broncos have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Broncos project to run 61.2 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #6-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box on 8.7% of their plays this season, #28-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Bridgewater has passed for 233 yards per game this year, #19-best in the league.
  • Efficiency-wise, Bridgewater has been #14 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.56 yards per target.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.6% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Teddy Bridgewater's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#15.4%).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #13-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 265.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.41. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.
     
     
     
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