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Taysom Hill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
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Right now, Taysom Hill Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 185.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 181.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 185.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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New Orleans's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Saints have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Panthers, they've stacked the box on 21.0% of their plays this season, #3-most in football.
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CONS:
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This year, at #40-best in the league, Hill has passed for63 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #39-best in the league, completing passes at a 56.4% clip.In terms of efficiency, Hill has been #31 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.46 yards per target.This year, the Saints have played in 8 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #6-most in football and means Hill's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Saints are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.9% of the time (#29 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects New Orleans to drop back to pass on 49.8% of their plays in this game (#30-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Carolina's #2-ranked pass defense has allowed 201 passing yards per game this year.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Carolina's defensive tackles rank #7 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Carolina's linebackers rank #8 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #19-fastest paced offense this season.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.New Orleans's O-Line grades out as the #20-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.New Orleans has run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Carolina has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.9% of their targets, which ranks them #17-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Carolina's defense is #15-best. This is because they allowed 7.55 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Carolina Panthers have had the #22-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Carolina Panthers have had the #15-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Carolina Panthers have had the #16-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Carolina's defensive ends rank #11 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hill to exceed his player prop total 66.2% of the time. He projects for 228.6 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $27.37. That makes its return on investment yield +24%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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