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Taysom Hill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
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Taysom Hill Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 195.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 190.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 195.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New Orleans have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#18.3%).The New York Jets enter this game with the #28-best pass defense this season, allowing 277 yards per game through the air.The Jets have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.6% of their targets, ranking #29 in the NFL.New York's defense has been #32-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.99 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Jets have had the #24-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #29-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Jets have stacked the box on 21.9% of their plays this season, #2-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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New Orleans has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#5-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.New Orleans is a 5.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 57.9% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 45.3% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Jets defensive tackles have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The New Orleans Saints have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Saints project to run 61.1 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.Taysom Hill's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New Orleans Saints have run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.The New York Jets have had the #21-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Jets defensive ends have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jets linebackers have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 184.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $2.02. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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