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Taysom Hill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
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Taysom Hill Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 215.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 205.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 215.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.New Orleans is a 6.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New Orleans have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#18.3%).The Dallas Cowboys enter this game with the #26-best pass defense this season, allowing 272 yards per game through the air.Dallas's defense has been #23-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.08 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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New Orleans has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.The Saints project to run 61.3 plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 47.2% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Cowboys have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.5% of their targets, ranking #5 in the NFL.Cowboys linebackers have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The New Orleans Saints have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Taysom Hill's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New Orleans Saints have run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #19-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #12-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #19-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box on 15.1% of their plays this season, #15-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 207.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 46.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.47 and with a negative ROI of -0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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