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Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
New York Giants vs Washington Football Team
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Right now, Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 206.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 207.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 206.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, the WFT have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Heinicke's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.Washington's O-Line grades out as the #6-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Washington has run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.The New York Giants have had the #28-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New York's linebackers rank #31 this season.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Washington has run the #23-fastest paced offense this season.The WFT enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.0% of the time (#23 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Washington to drop back to pass on 51.2% of their plays in this game (#28-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Washington's offensive has kept pressure off Taylor Heinicke for 2.58 seconds on average this year (#31-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The WFT have faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).The New York Giants have had the #9-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Giants, they've stacked the box on 8.3% of their plays this season, #29-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #19-best in the league, Heinicke has passed for225 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #15-best in the league, completing passes at a 66.7% clip.In terms of efficiency, Heinicke has been #22 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.08 yards per target.The Washington Football Team are projected to run 63.3 plays in this matchup, the #13-most on the game slate.New York's #17-ranked pass defense has allowed 250 passing yards per game this year.New York has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.0% of their targets, which ranks them #22-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, New York's defense is #11-best. This is because they allowed 7.32 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Giants have had the #19-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New York's defensive ends rank #12 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New York's defensive tackles rank #20 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Heinicke to exceed his player prop total 40.9% of the time. He projects for 183.1 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $12.13. That makes its return on investment yield +11%.
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