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Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team
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Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 224.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #8-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.9% clip.Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The WFT project to run 65.4 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.Washington is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 63.0% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Taylor Heinicke's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in the NFL.Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The WFT offensive line has given Taylor Heinicke 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#31-best in football).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington have faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).The Cowboys have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.0% of their targets, ranking #1-best in the NFL.Dallas's safeties grade out as the #8-best in pass coverage this year.Cowboys linebackers have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Heinicke has passed for 231 yards per game this year, #17-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Heinicke has been #17 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.20 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 59.1% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).The Dallas Cowboys enter this game with the #21-best pass defense this season, allowing 256 yards per game through the air.The Dallas Cowboys defense ranks #14-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.53.Dallas's cornerbacks grade out as the #14-best in pass coverage this year.Dallas's linebackers grade out as the #16-best in pass coverage this year.Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box on 15.1% of their plays this season, #15-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Heinicke putting up 258.9 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $19.42. Its return on investment would yield +17%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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