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Taylor Heinicke

Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team
Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 224.5 @ -115.
  • He's been the #8-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.9% clip.
  • Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The WFT project to run 65.4 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.
  • Washington is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 63.0% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Taylor Heinicke's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in the NFL.
  • Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The WFT offensive line has given Taylor Heinicke 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#31-best in football).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington have faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).
  • The Cowboys have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.0% of their targets, ranking #1-best in the NFL.
  • Dallas's safeties grade out as the #8-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Cowboys linebackers have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • Heinicke has passed for 231 yards per game this year, #17-best in the league.
  • Efficiency-wise, Heinicke has been #17 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.20 yards per target.
  • This offense passes the ball 59.1% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).
  • The Dallas Cowboys enter this game with the #21-best pass defense this season, allowing 256 yards per game through the air.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense ranks #14-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.53.
  • Dallas's cornerbacks grade out as the #14-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Dallas's linebackers grade out as the #16-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box on 15.1% of their plays this season, #15-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

    THE BLITZ sees Heinicke putting up 258.9 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.5% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $19.42. Its return on investment would yield +17%.

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