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Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Washington Football Team vs Seattle Seahawks
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Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 245.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 250.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #5-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.3% clip.Washington has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The WFT project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.Taylor Heinicke's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.9% of their passes this year, #2-most in the NFL.The Seattle Seahawks enter this game with the #31-best pass defense this season, allowing 294 yards per game through the air.The Seahawks have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.5% of their targets, ranking #29 in the NFL.Seattle's defense has been #23-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.17 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #27-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #23-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Seahawks defensive ends have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box on 19.6% of their plays this season, #5-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 59.9% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).The WFT offensive line has given Taylor Heinicke 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington have faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#7.2%).Seahawks linebackers have ranked #2 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Heinicke has passed for 246 yards per game this year, #14-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Heinicke has been #15 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.50 yards per target.This offenses projects to pass 59.6% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #18-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Seahawks defensive tackles have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Seattle's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #12-quickest in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 255.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.61 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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