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Tajae Sharpe Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
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Tajae Sharpe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Sharpe has been in the #82 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 73.7% completion rate.The Panthers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 72.7% of their targets this season, (#2-most in the league).The Falcons project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #10-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 61.8% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.22 yards per target this season, ranking in the #23 percentile.Carolina's defense has allowed 138 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).Sharpe's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Sharpe has been on the field for 47.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 52.8% of Atlanta's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #47 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 7.8% -- #43 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Sharpe is projected for 2.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #13-most yards per target (8.65) against the Panthers this season.Carolina Panthers cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 61.9% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta has faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 25.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.18 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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