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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 42.7 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -120.
  • Shepard has been on the field for 66.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 22.2% -- #87 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Shepard has been in the #84 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 74.5% completion rate.
  • New York has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Dallas's defense has allowed 178 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#5-most in football).
  • The New York Giants have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Giants project to run 67.1 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.
  • New York is a 12.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 63.7% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Giants offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Shepard is projected for -22.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #3 percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Cowboys have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 57.2% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).
  • Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.
  • Shepard's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • He has run a route on 74.0% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.23 yards per target this season, ranking in the #53 percentile.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #18-most yards per target (8.20) against the Cowboys this season.
  • Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.6% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.90 and with a negative ROI of -6%.

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