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Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
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Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 42.7 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Shepard has been on the field for 66.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 22.2% -- #87 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Shepard has been in the #84 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 74.5% completion rate.New York has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Dallas's defense has allowed 178 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#5-most in football).The New York Giants have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Giants project to run 67.1 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.New York is a 12.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense passes the ball 63.7% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Giants offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Shepard is projected for -22.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #3 percentile among wide receivers.The Cowboys have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 57.2% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.Shepard's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has run a route on 74.0% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.23 yards per target this season, ranking in the #53 percentile.Opposing wideouts have put up the #18-most yards per target (8.20) against the Cowboys this season.Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.90 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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