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Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 68.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 66.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 68.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Diggs ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 82.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Diggs ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 88.0% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Diggs ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 26.8% of passes this season.This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 67.6% of the time (#3 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Buffalo to drop back to pass on 62.4% of their plays in this game (#7-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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The Patriots's pass defense ranks #4-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 128 yards per game this season.The New England Patriots have allowed 7.71 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #8-highest among NFL opponents.The New England Patriots rank #4-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.9%.As a unit, the Patriots cornerbacks rank #8 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Patriots safeties rank #3 in pass coverage.The Bills enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Diggs for a -0.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Diggs ranks in the #51 percentile and has put up 8.13 yards per target this season.Diggs's 67.2% completion rate marks him in the #60 percentile among receivers.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.Buffalo's O-Line grades out as the #17-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Diggs open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Diggs to exceed his player prop total 47.3% of the time. He projects for 64.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $0.73. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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