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Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
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Right now, Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 78.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 77.4 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 72.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 78.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Diggs ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 82.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Diggs ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 87.4% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Diggs ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 26.8% of passes this season.This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Diggs's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.The New York Jets have allowed 9.19 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #30-highest among NFL opponents.The New York Jets rank #25-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.0%.As a unit, the Jets safeties rank #27 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 67.5% of the time (#3 in the NFL).Buffalo has run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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The Bills are a 16.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Bills have faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Diggs for a 0.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Diggs ranks in the #56 percentile and has put up 8.31 yards per target this season.Diggs's 66.6% completion rate marks him in the #57 percentile among receivers.The Jets's pass defense ranks #21-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 160 yards per game this season.As a unit, the Jets cornerbacks rank #21 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #16-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects Buffalo to drop back to pass on 58.3% of their plays in this game (#22-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Buffalo's O-Line grades out as the #18-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Diggs open.Buffalo's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.49 seconds on average this year (#21-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Diggs to exceed his player prop total 51.3% of the time. He projects for 80.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.23 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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