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Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers
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Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (-105/-125) with an implied projection of 71.4 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 73.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 73.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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Diggs has been on the field for 83.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 87.2% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #86 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 26.0% -- #95 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Opposing wideouts have put up the #9-most yards per target (8.79) against the Panthers this season.The Panthers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 72.6% of their targets this season, (#2-most in the league).The Bills project to run 64.2 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 68.2% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Buffalo Bills have run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Carolina's defense has allowed 137 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).Buffalo is a 14.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Diggs is projected for -0.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #41 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.41 yards per target this season, ranking in the #56 percentile.Diggs has been in the #61 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.3% completion rate.Carolina Panthers cornerbacks rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.The Buffalo Bills have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to pass 58.6% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Diggs's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bills offensive line has given the QB 2.49 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#21-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 67.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.33 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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