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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 76.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 82.5 @ -115.
  • Diggs has been on the field for 82.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 87.0% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #84 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 26.1% -- #93 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Bills project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.
  • Buffalo is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 68.0% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 66.7% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Diggs's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Buffalo Bills have run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #29-most yards per target (7.37) against the Buccaneers this season.
  • The Buccaneers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 63.6% of their targets this season, (#24-most in the league).
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Diggs is projected for -0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #53 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.60 yards per target this season, ranking in the #59 percentile.
  • Diggs has been in the #65 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 68.4% completion rate.
  • Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#14-most in football).
  • The Buffalo Bills have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Bills offensive line has given the QB 2.49 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#21-most time in the league).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 87.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.9% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.27 and with a negative ROI of -1%.

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