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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 62.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 57.5 @ -115.
  • Diggs has been on the field for 81.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 86.1% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 26.3% -- #93 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Diggs has been in the #68 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 68.4% completion rate.
  • Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • This offense passes the ball 68.2% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Buffalo Bills have run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • New England's defense has allowed 139 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #26-most yards per target (7.73) against the Patriots this season.
  • The Patriots have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.7% of their targets this season, (#29-most in the league).
  • New England Patriots safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.
  • Buffalo is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Diggs is projected for 1.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.58 yards per target this season, ranking in the #58 percentile.
  • New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Buffalo Bills have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Bills project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to pass 58.6% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Diggs's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Bills offensive line has given the QB 2.49 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#21-most time in the league).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 62.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.05. It's return on investment would yeild 0%.

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