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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
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Right now, Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 59.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 58.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Los Angeles's ranks #1 in that regard this season.His 46.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #73 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 52.1% this year puts him in the #82 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Michel for a 10.1% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Rams have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #7-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 64.4 plays in this matchup, the #7-most on the game slate.The Rams enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #9-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 35.9% of their plays.The defensive ends of Arizona have been the #29-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Arizona have been the #23-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for Los Angeles this week.Los Angeles has been the #27-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 34.8% run rate in a neutral context.The defensive tackles of Arizona have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Michel finds himself in the #65 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 50 yards.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.The Cardinals defense has allowed 114 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #19-least in football.The Arizona Cardinals have allowed 4.60 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #19-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of Arizona have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Michel to exceed his player prop total 55.0% of the time. He projects for 66.0 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $5.50. That makes its return on investment yield +5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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