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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 70.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 68.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Los Angeles's ranks #1 in that regard this season.His carry rate of 46.9% this year puts him in the #76 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Michel for a 37.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Rams have played in 8 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #6-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Rams are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.The defensive tackles of Baltimore have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles has been the #28-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 34.5% run rate in a neutral context.The Ravens defense has allowed 85 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #2-least in football.The Baltimore Ravens have allowed 4.01 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #5-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Baltimore have been the #10-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Baltimore have been the #10-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Ravens have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #8-most in the NFL this year at 18.4% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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Michel finds himself in the #64 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 49 yards.His 41.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #66 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #13-fastest paced offense this season.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #16-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #21-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 38.3% of their plays.The safeties of Baltimore have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Los Angeles has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (12.5% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Michel to exceed his player prop total 61.2% of the time. He projects for 88.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $16.67. That makes its return on investment yield +15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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