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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 60.4 yards.
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PROS:
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The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has ranked #1 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 42.5% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #34 percentile when it comes to running backs.Los Angeles has played in 7 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Rams project to run 64.0 total plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.The Minnesota Vikings have ranked #25 against the run this year, holding opponents to 125 yards per game on the ground.Vikings defensive ends have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Vikings linebackers have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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This offense runs the ball 34.2% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL), and they project to run 34.2% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 34.2% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Vikings safeties have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 16.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #10 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Michel has been the #34-leading rusher this season, tallying 43 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 38.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #62 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Michel is projected for 9.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.In terms of efficiency, Minnesota's defense has allowed 4.60 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#22-least in football).Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Rams have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #21-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 48.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 41.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $13.80. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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