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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 55.3 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has ranked #1 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Michel is projected for 32.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Los Angeles has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Rams project to run 63.8 total plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.Los Angeles is a 14.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jaguars safeties have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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This offense runs the ball 34.1% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL), and they project to run 34.1% of the time in this contest.The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #6 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Michel has been the #51-leading rusher this season, tallying 28 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 25.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #40 percentile among running backs.He has received 29.0% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #47 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offenses projects to runs 39.7% of the time in this contest (#15 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Jacksonville Jaguars have ranked #21 against the run this year, holding opponents to 123 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Jacksonville's defense has allowed 4.42 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#15-least in football).Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jaguars linebackers have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Rams have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #21-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 65.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.54. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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