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Sean Mannion Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Right now, Sean Mannion Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 183.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 187.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 183.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Vikings are a 12.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Minnesota's offensive has kept pressure off Sean Mannion for 2.39 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Vikings have faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).
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CONS:
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This year, the Vikings have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #2-most in football and means Mannion's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Minnesota Vikings are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.Minnesota's O-Line grades out as the #30-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Minnesota has run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Green Bay has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.0% of their targets, which ranks them #7-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Green Bay's defense is #5-best. This is because they allowed 7.17 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Green Bay Packers have had the #3-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Green Bay's defensive tackles rank #4 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Green Bay's linebackers rank #5 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Packers, they've stacked the box on 5.5% of their plays this season, #31-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Minnesota has run the #12-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time (#19 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Minnesota to drop back to pass on 59.1% of their plays in this game (#18-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Green Bay's #14-ranked pass defense has allowed 240 passing yards per game this year.The Green Bay Packers have had the #13-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Green Bay Packers have had the #12-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Green Bay's defensive ends rank #12 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mannion to exceed his player prop total 52.7% of the time. He projects for 190.3 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.70 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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