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Scotty Miller Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Scotty Miller Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 8.5 (-128/104), with an implied projection of 10.1 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -128.
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PROS:
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As a unit, the Eagles safeties rank #25 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 65.1 plays in this matchup, the #5-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.8% of the time (#1 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Tampa Bay to drop back to pass on 67.8% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tampa Bay's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Miller open.
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CONS:
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In terms of playing time, Miller ranks in the #22 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 25.2% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Miller ranks in the #23 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 27.8% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Miller ranks in the #14 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 2.8% of passes this season.The weather forecast for this game calls for 18-mph wind. This is important because high winds lead to fewer pass completions.The Eagles's pass defense ranks #3-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 122 yards per game this season.The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 7.47 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #7-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Eagles cornerbacks rank #1 in pass coverage.The Buccaneers are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Miller for a 2.0% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Philadelphia Eagles rank #20-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.8%.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Miller to exceed his player prop total 56.8% of the time. He projects for 13.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.53. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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