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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
New York Giants vs Washington Football Team
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Right now, Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 51.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 52.3 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 52.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His 56.1% snap rate this year puts him in the #84 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 54.3% this year puts him in the #86 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, New York has run the #9-fastest paced offense this season.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #6-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 48.1% of their plays.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New York's ranks #25 in that regard this season.This year, the Giants have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means New York could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.The Giants enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.The defensive ends of Washington have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Washington have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Barkley finds himself in the #53 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 47 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Barkley for a -0.4% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The New York Giants are projected to run 62.8 plays in this matchup, the #15-most on the game slate.New York has been the #15-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 39.7% run rate in a neutral context.The WFT defense has allowed 108 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #11-least in football.The Washington Football Team have allowed 4.43 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #15-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Washington have been the #14-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Washington have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (14.9% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The WFT have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #20-most in the NFL this year at 13.2% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Barkley to exceed his player prop total 64.9% of the time. He projects for 71.2 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $22.74. That makes its return on investment yield +19%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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